Notre Dame, Penn State Clash in Orange Bowl: Three Keys to Victory
The Orange Bowl promises a gritty, defensive showdown between two of college football’s most storied programs: Notre Dame and Penn State. Unlike the high-scoring potential of the other College Football Playoff semifinal, this game is likely to hinge on which team can grind out points in a battle dominated by elite defenses.
Penn State has surrendered just 24 points through two playoff games, neutralizing Boise State’s star running back Ashton Jeanty and scoring twice on defense against SMU. Meanwhile, Notre Dame limited Indiana to garbage-time touchdowns and stifled Georgia’s rushing attack in a 23-10 win.
The team that masters these three key factors will earn a spot in the national championship:
1. Quarterback Matchup: Riley Leonard vs. Drew Allar
Neither quarterback has lit up the playoffs, but their performances will be pivotal.
- Riley Leonard (Notre Dame): Leonard’s toughness and leadership have earned trust, but the Irish offense thrives when the running game takes center stage. Notre Dame scores nearly 40 points per game when Leonard attempts fewer than 30 passes, compared to 30 points when he throws more often. Against Georgia, Leonard struggled through the air (3.8 yards per attempt) but led the team in rushing with 80 yards.
- Drew Allar (Penn State): Allar has shown resilience, but inconsistency and turnovers remain concerns. He has three playoff touchdowns with no interceptions but has struggled with accuracy, completing just 54% of his passes. Penn State is 2-2 when Allar throws an interception, underscoring the importance of mistake-free football.
2. Battle in the Trenches
The line of scrimmage will determine which defense prevails.
- Penn State: The Nittany Lions boast one of the best run defenses in the country, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry. They’ve held five teams under 75 rushing yards but showed vulnerability against Southern California’s explosive runs.
- Notre Dame: While the Irish have given up more rushing yards overall, their numbers are skewed by games against run-heavy service academies. They’ve proven capable of clamping down when needed, holding Georgia to just 62 rushing yards.
3. Explosive Plays Downfield
Both teams lack big-play threats in the passing game, which could make any downfield success a game-changer.
- Penn State: The Nittany Lions rank 86th nationally with just 15 receptions of 30+ yards and 108th with four completions of 40+ yards.
- Notre Dame: The Irish are even less explosive through the air, ranking 130th with only four completions of 30+ yards. However, their running game compensates with explosive ground plays, ranking fourth nationally with 11 runs of 40+ yards.
In a game likely decided by field position and defensive stands, one long gain could shift momentum and force defensive adjustments, opening opportunities elsewhere.
Prediction
Expect a slugfest defined by defensive dominance and precise execution. The team that wins in the trenches, avoids turnovers, and capitalizes on rare big-play opportunities will advance to the title game.
